Best Sports Betting Strategy
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- Betting Strategies List
- Best Sports Betting Parlay Strategy
- Best Sports Betting Strategy Sites
- Best Sports Betting Tips Today
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- Best Sports Betting Tips Sites
NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies
How big is the football betting market?
An important part of sports betting strategy is knowing the best ways to use the basic bet types effectively. In the following articles we explain exactly how to do this. The advice in these articles is very straightforward and easy to understand, so they are great for relatively inexperienced bettors who are looking for simple ways to improve.
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Forget baseball.
America’s favorite pastime is football.
The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.
This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.
Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.
That’s right.
Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.
And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.
That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.
According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
Why do most NFL betting systems fail?
Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.
Were it not for the juice, things might be different.
The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.
Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —
So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.
The trick is to take things seriously.
Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.
But don’t be overwhelmed.
If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.
Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.
Our Betting Methodology and System
The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.
This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.
Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time
Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.
A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.
Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”
While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.
What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.
The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.
From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.
For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.
NFL Betting Systems
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?
NFL Spread Bet
The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.
Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.
Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.
In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.
Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…
Moneyline Bet
Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.
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Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.
Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.
What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.
As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.
NFL Totals Bet
NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.
Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.
Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.
NFL Prop Bet
A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.
Prop bets come in many different forms.
Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.
During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.
NFL Parlay Bet
You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.
In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.
This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.
In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.
In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.
NFL Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.
When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.
When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.
Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.
It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.
The Most Important NFL Betting Stats
Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.
So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?
Well, it might not be what you think.
According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents
In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.
The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.
Seems pretty simple.
The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.
As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.
Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.
Factors for NFL picks?
Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?
I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five
What really matters is the team’s offensive line.
Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.
In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.
You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.
With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.
Biggest mistakes with NFL betting
Money Management
The biggest mistake is money management.
If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.
This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.
It’s simple.
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.
That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
Shop the Numbers
Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.
No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.
Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.
Don’t say yes to the first line you see.
Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.
What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.
Bet the Underdog at Home
There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home
You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.
Slim underdogs regularly win outright.
Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.
Why?
Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.
There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.
Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:
- Chasing your bets
- Getting vindictive
- Trying to win back losses
- Go after big wins to recoup losses
- Overly-promising wagers.
It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.
Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.
There’s no large place for emotion in this game.
Betting Strategies List
When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.
The key to beating them is knowing yours too.
When you look for sports betting information online, you find a bunch of articles about the basics, like how to read lines and where to bet. You also find a few pages about advance betting techniques and systems. But few pages are available that help you advance from the beginning to the point where you can use advanced techniques.
This page is designed to fill this gap. You’re going to learn 11 simple sports betting strategies that anyone can use. Each of these is an important step in building your overall system that can eventually produce profitable results.
1 – Start with Small Bets
It takes a long time to learn how to beat the sportsbooks. Of course, some gamblers pick up winning strategies faster than others, but there’s a learning curve for even the best sports bettors. You only have a limited amount of money you can use to bet on sports, so don’t make the mistake of betting too much per contest when you’re learning how to win.
I started my sports betting career making bets of $22 and less. Many bets were only $5 to $11. I still make some bets as low as $11 today. It took me around 20 years of mixed results while betting part time to get to the point where I’m pretty good at it.
I used many different strategies over the years to make it easier to break even, but even with them I didn’t make any money. I just reduced how much it cost me to make bets. The main thing I did was place most of my wagers with individuals instead of bookies and sportsbooks.
This eliminated the cost of the vig, and this is a good strategy to use as long as you’re making small bets. When you don’t have to pay vig you only have to win half the time to break even. As you start making bigger bets this strategy becomes harder, because you can’t find individuals that are willing to take larger action.
When you start betting on sports, decide how much you have for a bankroll. Set this aside and don’t use it for anything other than sports betting. Divide this amount by 100, and make bets no bigger than this amount as you learn how to improve your results.
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You’re going to make mistakes, and by only using a small percentage of your bankroll they won’t cost you too much. This strategy also makes sure that you can make plenty of bets before you run out of money. The longer you can stay in the game, the better your odds are of coming up with a winning system.
2 – Focus on a Small Area
Most sports bettors get started by betting on their favorite teams and betting on big games, like the super bowl or NCAA basketball tournament. I cover betting on your favorite teams in another section, but the mistake beginning sports bettors make when they bet on big games is they usually bet on something they don’t know a great deal about.
Instead of betting on everything and anything, you have a better chance of picking winners when you focus on one thing. Instead of betting on the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NCAA games, focus on just one sport to start.
Is to focus on one smaller part of one sport when you start betting on sports. Instead of betting on NCAA football, focus on one conference. Instead of betting on the NFL, just bet on games in the AFC East.
By focusing on one small area you have the opportunity to build a base of knowledge that helps you pick winners. In order to be a winning sports bettor you need to build as much knowledge about the teams and players that you bet on. When you can gather and analyze more data than the people setting the lines you’ve reached a point where you can make a consistent profit.
The way to get started is to specialize. I understand that part of the reason you want to bet on sports is because it makes the games more interesting, but you need to decide if you’re willing to pay I the form of losing wagers to make a game more interesting or if you want to improve your chances to win.
3 – Make Moneyline Wagers
Most sporting events have at least two different lines. One of the lines is an against the spread bet. An against the spread bet has a point spread, where one team gets points and the other team gives points.
The other common type of betting line is a moneyline. With a moneyline wager, you just have to pick the team that wins the game to win the bet. On moneyline wagers, the amount you have to bet to win is usually different than in against the spread wagers.
Against the spread bets usually, cost 11 to 10 or 110 to 100 when you bet on either side of the game. A moneyline wager is a little different. The extra money you have to bet above what you can win on an against the spread bet is called vig, and that’s how the sportsbooks make a profit.
Moneyline wagers also have a vig, but it’s harder to see because the lines are presented in a different way. Here’s an example of a moneyline wager, and how it works.
In this game, Nebraska is playing at Penn State. The team with a plus sign, in this case Nebraska, is the underdog. The +150 means that if you bet $100 on Nebraska and they win the game you get back your $100 and win $150.
The favorite, in this case, Penn State has a minus number. This number means you have to bet that much to win $100. So you have to bet $170 for the chance to win $100 on Penn State.
When you start betting on sports it can be difficult to pick winner against the spread. The sportsbooks are good at setting lines that end up close to the final score, so it’s challenging to figure out which team is going to win with the spread.
But it’s much easier to pick the team that’s going to win the game outright. As you can see in the example, it costs more to pick the favorite, but it’s still easier to pick the winner.
You can also look for underdogs that have a decent chance to win. When you can win more than you risk you don’t have to pick as many winners to make a profit.
4 – Understand Home Team Bias
In sports of all kinds, the home team wins more than the visiting team. The exact percentages vary from sport to sport and from season to season, but you can see it across all sports. Most people know this from watching games, but few understand how this biases the sports betting public. You need to understand what home team bias is and how it can hurt your sports betting results.
Because home teams win more often than road teams, many sports bettors give the home team too much credit when they try to determine the best bet. This is called home team bias. While you must account for the added chance to win for the home team when you’re trying to determine the best team to bet on, you can’t count the fact that they’re at home for too much.
The general betting public defiantly has a home team bias, and the sportsbooks have learned about this over the years. When they set their lines they account for general home team bias, and this is why betting on home underdogs isn’t as profitable as it used to be.
When the sportsbooks realized that home underdogs were covering the spread too often they started adjusting the lines against them.
Of course, you need to be careful that you don’t go too far the other way. Some sports bettors give road teams too much credit when they try to eliminate home team bias in their betting. It’s just as costly to bet on too many road teams as it is to bet on too many home teams.
5 – Line Shopping Is Profitable
When you only have one choice when you want to bet on a sporting event you have decide which side of the bet is most likely to win. But when you have multiple choices of where to bet you can compare the lines offered at different places.
Today you can place bets with local bookies, with sportsbooks in many cities, and with hundreds of sportsbooks online. You can use this to help you make more money over time.
You evaluate games the same way, but when you figure out which team should win you can look at several different sportsbooks to get the best line. This is true for both against the spread bets and moneyline wagers.
You don’t have to have any skill to shop for lines. It doesn’t have anything to do with your ability to handicap games, so it’s one of the things that every sports bettor should do, whether you’re a beginner or a veteran.
6 – Don’t Bet on Your Favorite Team
The odds are good that the first bet you placed on a sporting event involved your favorite team. Many sports bettors continue betting on their favorite team because they root for the team and want to enjoy winning some money when their team wins.
Of course, there’s nothing wrong with this, but it’s not the way to be a winning sports bettor. If you want to make money betting on sports you have to be able to look at games and teams in an unbiased way.
Instead of trying to view my favorite teams without bias, I simply stopped betting on their games. I still watch them and root for them, but I don’t even try to handicap their games.
You can bet on your favorite teams if you want to, but I recommend using a separate bankroll to do it. It’s difficult for a fan to look at their favorite team and players without bias, and this bias costs you money in the long run.
7 – Understand the Sports Betting Profit Model
In order to make the best decisions when you bet on sports you need to understand how the sportsbooks make money. Once you understand how they make a profit, you can use this information to help you in your quest for profit.
I mentioned the vig in an earlier section, and it forms the basis of all profit for the sportsbooks. When you have to bet $110 for the chance to win $100 it creates a gap of profit. When you win you get back your wager, so the book doesn’t make any profit on your win.
But when you lose, the sportsbook gets the amount they risked paying out as well as the extra amount you had to risk. If they take a bet on each side of a game they lock in a profit.
The sportsbook takes a bet of $110 to win $100 on team A and also takes a bet of $110 to win $100 on the opponent, team B. When team A wins the sportsbook wins $110 from one bettor and only has to pay out $100. This locks in a profit of $10 on the game.
The perfect situation for a sportsbook is to have the exact same amount wagered on each side of every game. This is hard to accomplish in the real world, but if they set good lines it averages out over time.
This also means that the sportsbooks set lines based on trying to create the same amount of betting action on each side of each game. They don’t set the lines based on the predicted final score. While these two things often end up close together, it still gives a smart sports bettor the chance to find profitable lines.
When you can predict the final score spread of games accurately, you can compare your predictions to the available lines. Often these two things are close, but sometimes you can find a game where the line the sportsbook sets is different than your prediction because the book is more interested in creating equal action than predicting final scores.
8 – Learn the Key Positions by Sport
In some sports certain positions are more important than others. Once you learn which positions are the most important you can spend more time evaluating players at those positions to improve your chances to win.
In baseball, the starting pitchers for each team are the most important positions. This has been true since baseball was invented, but in recent years starting pitchers have been throwing fewer innings and the bullpen has been gaining in importance.
I’ve started valuing the bullpen almost as much as the starting pitcher in games. Unless a game goes extra innings, there are only nine innings. Many managers are quickly replacing their starting pitchers after they get five innings pitched.
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Five innings pitched is roughly two times through the batting order, and the more times the pitcher faces the batting order the worse his results are on average. Pitchers who go beyond six innings are becoming rarer every season.
If you work with the idea that the starting pitcher will work around six innings, then the bullpen works around three innings. This might make you think that the starting pitcher is twice as important as the bullpen, but this is a dangerous way to handicap baseball games.
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In football the most important position is the quarterback. No other position comes close to the importance of the quarterback.
Basketball is one of the few sports where position isn’t overly important to sports bettors. The NBA, and for the most part the NCAA, is a star driven sport. The best players are the most important ones for handicapping purposes, no matter where they play.
Hockey and soccer is somewhat like the NBA because the best players tend to control the games, regardless of position. I always take a close look at the goalies in both hockey and soccer, but I don’t weigh their input a great deal more than other positions.
You still need to look at every position and player on each team to do a good job handicapping sporting events, but you should always start with the key positions.
9 – Bigger Games Have Tighter Lines
In the section about the sports betting profit model you learned how sports books make money. If they can get roughly even action on both sides of a game they take as much action as they can get. But they rarely get equal action on both sides of a game.
When they can’t get even action they’re at risk of losing money on a game. The most popular games create the most betting action, so if the sportsbooks make a mistake on the line they offer it can cost them money.
Remember, the sportsbook doesn’t want to predict the final score; they want to create a line that gets action on each side. In the biggest games, like the super bowl, the books take so much volume that they have to spend more energy and time setting the best lines possible. This usually results in tighter lines on big games than on less popular games.
The sportsbook has to set lines for 10 games for the day. One of the games is a big rivalry that traditionally creates half of the total action the book takes in for the day. One of the games is between two smaller market teams that traditionally have only created a couple of percent of the daily action. The other eight games fall somewhere in the middle.
Which game is the sportsbook going to concentrate on setting the best possible line for? Of course, the answer is the one that creates half their daily action.
Which games will they spend the least amount of time setting a line for? The game that only accounts for a couple of percent of their daily action is the answer.
I’m not trying to say that the least popular game is always the best betting option, but it’s easier to find lines that offer betting value on one side or the other of these games than the bigger games.
10 – Avoid Dangerous Sports
Most sports bettors never think about the possibility of a game being fixed, but it happens sometimes. Some sports are harder to fix than others, but if you aren’t aware of the possibilities it can cost you money.
Individual sports like tennis and golf are the easiest to fix. You only need one person to alter the outcomes in a way that can be profitable to the fixer. Team sports are more difficult to fix, but basketball has a history of games being fixed. An NBA fixing scandal was recently in the news. You can read more about it here.
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11 – Treat Sports Betting like a Business
If you want to succeed as a sports bettor, you need to start treating it like a business instead of a hobby. Businesses have a budget, track their results, learn from their mistakes, and try to make profitable decisions in every area of the business.
These are all traits that the best sports bettors have as well. Start tracking all of your results and work with a set bankroll. You can add money to your bankroll if you need, but keeping your bankroll separate from your regular finances helps you track it better.
Conclusion
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It’s hard for beginning sports bettors to make a profit, but with these 11 tips you can get a jump start. Dividing your bankroll up so you can bet on plenty of games helps keep you in action longer, and helps you track your results. Specialize in one area, shop for lines, learn about bias, and stop betting on your favorite teams.
When you learn and start using everything on this page your results will instantly improve. Once you’ve mastered what you learned here, continue learning and testing new things to keep improving. With constant improvement you can start turning a profit before you know it.