Vuelta Betting Odds

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Following the first week of racing, the 2020 Vuelta a Espana has been very exciting and entertaining. From competitive racing to bad weather, this Grand Tour has not disappointed.

Riders got their first rest day on Monday, October 26th, and there’s a surprise in the standings. Team Ineos’ captain Richard Carapaz sits first in the GC standings after a crazy Stage 6, which saw rain, cold temperatures and the cracking of Team Jumbo-Visma.

Prior to the stage, Primoz Roglic and the rest of his Jumbo-Visma riders were ruling the race. However, Sunday’s Stage 6 proved catastrophic for the entire team. Roglic currently sits 4th in the standings roughly 30 seconds back. The Top 5 riders are all within 67 seconds of each other.

? Una semana, muchas emociones

? One week, lots of emotions#LaVuelta20 pic..com/MffaN9r7Pb

— La Vuelta (@lavuelta) October 26, 2020

Vuelta a Espana betting sites have released updated odds for the overall race winner. Let’s take a closer look at these odds, compare them to the pre-race betting lines, and see if there’s any reason to pick a different red jersey winner for the 2020 Vuelta a Espana.

Current Vuelta a Espana GC Standings

The current overall standings for the General Classification (red jersey) following Stage 6:

  • Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) in 24:34:39
  • Hugh Carthy (EF Pro Cycling) at 18s
  • Daniel Martin (Israel Start-Up Nation) at 20s
  • Primoz Roglic (Team Jumbo-Visma) at 30s
  • Enric Mas Nicolau (Movistar Team) at 1:07
  • Felix Grosschartner (Bora-Hansgrohe) at 1:30
  • Marc Soler (Movistar Team) at 1:42
  • Esteban Chaves (Mitchelton-Scott) at 2:02
  • David De la Cruz (UAE Team Emirates) at 2:46

Vuelta a Espana Betting Odds

The updated odds to win the Vuelta a Espana:

  • Primoz Roglic (-187)
  • Richard Carapaz (+350)
  • Enric Mas Nicolau (+650)
  • Sepp Kuss (+950)
  • Daniel Martin (+1000)
  • Hugh Carthy (+2000)
  • Marc Soler (+3300)
  • Alexander Vlasov (+4000)
  • Johan Esteban Chaves (+6600)
  • Felix Grosschartner (+8000)

The Vuelta Favorites

According to cycling betting sites, these riders are the odds on favorites to win the Vuelta a Espana following one week of racing:

Primoz Roglic (-187)

After one week of racing, Roglic remains the betting favorite. However, despite being 30 seconds back of the race leader, his betting odds have actually gone down. Prior to the Vuelta, Roglic was a +150 favorite. Now, he’s an even larger betting favorite at -187.

Roglic won the opening stage of the Vuelta and was runner up the next two stages. The controversy is with Stage 5 where he finished 4th. Dan Martin crashed and the officials gave the leading group of GC contenders the same time.

That decision wiped out the time gap that Roglic had on his competitors. In other words, he might only be down 20 seconds instead of a half minute.

I do have some concern for Roglic following Sunday’s showing. He was left behind by the GC contenders and the rest of his team was nowhere to be found.

It’s been reported that he had issues with a zipper on his jacket and that’s what caused him to lose time. We’ll see following the rest day if it was a zipper or if it was his conditioning.

Richard Carapaz (+350)

I was high on Carapaz prior to the start of the Vuelta and he has not let me down. The Team Ineos leader has looked as strong as Roglic and is clearly one of the favorites to win this race.

I’m surprised that Carapaz actually has a 30 second lead over Roglic and sits on top of the GC standings 18 seconds ahead of Hugh Carthy. Carapaz had finished behind Roglic on every stage except for Sunday’s Stage 6 where he took the red jersey from Roglic.

Prior to that, Carapaz has had three Top 4 finishes and four Top 10 results. His odds coming into the Vuelta were +650. Currently, he’s listed at +350 odds and the second overall betting favorite. There’s still value with Richard especially since he’s leading the race.

One thing is for certain, his Team Ineos was up for the challenge of Jumbo-Visma and Movistar. This is the best that Ineos has looked in all three Grand Tours after their embarrassing performance in the Tour de France and their forgettable performance in the Giro d’Italia.

Enric Mas Nicolau (+650)

Currently, Mas is in 5th place overall at 67 seconds back of Carapaz. He’s been able to keep up with Roglic and Carapaz through the first week and still has plenty of opportunities to make up lost time.

Mas finished 6th on the first three stages, but slid back some after Stage 6. He’s definitely a podium contender and is now the leader of Movistar which also features Valverde and Soler.

Heading into this Grand Tour, Mas was listed at +1000 odds. After one week of racing through Spain, Mas has seen his odds shrink to +650. There’s still plenty of value to be had with the 25 year old Spaniard.

Sepp Kuss (+950)

For the first five stages, Sepp Kuss looked like the best rider out there. In fact, if he were on a different team, he probably would’ve been at the top of the GC standings. Following Stage 5, Kuss was sitting 6th overall.

His overall racing made Kuss a trump card for Team Jumbo-Visma to play in the mountains. They could send Kuss on the attack and crack Roglic’s rivals. If they didn’t follow Kuss then he would be able to break from the contenders and take the overall race lead.

Unfortunately, Kuss had a bad Stage 6 and fell 17 spots all the way down to 23rd overall. He’s now just under 10 minutes back of Carapaz and has no real shot at winning the Vuelta.

What’s a bit baffling to me is that Kuss’ odds have been cut in half after the first week of action. He was at +1800, but is now +950 despite being 10 minutes back. I don’t think the oddsmakers fully grasp what’s going on in Spain.

As much as I like Kuss, he should be avoided. The American will help Roglic contend for the red jersey and might get a stage win along the way.

Daniel Martin (+1000)

For a few stages, Dan Martin wore the green jersey as the leader in the points competition. However, that ended on Stage 5 when he crashed near the end of the stage. He ended up losing his green jersey to Primoz Roglic who currently leads the competition after one week.

Dan Martin has certainly surprised the field and pundits. He wasn’t even considered a realistic pre-race favorite. But, after one week of racing, he currently sits in 3rd place just 20 seconds back of Carapaz.

Martin has three Top 3 results in the first week including winning Stage 3 where he outsprinted Roglic and Carapaz to the uphill finish.

At +1000 odds, Martin definitely offers value as he’s a serious threat to finish on the podium and to challenge for the red jersey competition.

The Best Vuelta Value

Other than Dan Martin, the biggest surprise has to be Hugh Carthy (+2000). The 26 year old Brit wasn’t even considered to be the outright team leader for EF Pro Cycling, but has raced well over the first week.

He currently sits 2nd overall, just 18 seconds behind Carapaz. Carthy has finished in the Top 8 on four of the six stages including Stage 6, which hurt other contenders like Roglic.

Carthy’s best Grand Tour result came in the 2019 Giro d’Italia when he finished 11th. This year, he was 37th at the Tour de France. There have been no indications during the 2020 season that Carthy would be a GC contender at the Vuelta.

Betting

Yet, not only is he a realistic contender for the red jersey, he also offers the best betting value at +2000 odds.

Top Longshot to Win the Vuelta

There are certainly other cyclists with larger betting odds that could be considered a longshot candidate, but Marc Soler (+3300) is my choice.

Vuelta Betting Odds Betting

After watching the first week of action, it’s clear that Soler is being used to help his leaders Enric Mas and Alejandro Valverde. Yet, something funny happened along the roads of Spain, Soler won Stage 2 and he currently sits 7th overall at 1:42 back of Carapaz.

Furthermore, he’s just 35 seconds behind teammate Enric Mas and 1:18 ahead of Alejandro Valverde who sits in 10th place overall.

If anything happens to Mas, you can expect Soler to step up as the leader. He has showed good form and is up to the task of riding with the best cyclists in this race.

Who Wins the 2020 Vuelta a Espana?

In my Vuelta a Espana red jersey preview, I picked Primoz Roglic, Richard Carapaz and Enric Mas to finish on the podium. Right now, they’re 4th, 1st, and 5th respectively. Yet, along with Dan Martin, and Hugh Carthy, they look like the best riders in this race.

Vuelta Betting Odds

Of those three podium finishers, I picked Primoz Roglic to win the Vuelta. With that in mind, I am sticking with Roglic to win.

Primoz Roglic survives unscathed on 'nervous' stage 4 at Vuelta a España

Slovenian remains in the race lead on a quiet but windy day in Aragónhttps://t.co/QeblbrLZV3 pic..com/VLNbrOpq3X

— Cyclingnews.com (@Cyclingnewsfeed) October 23, 2020

Team Jumbo-Visma had a bad day on Sunday, but shouldn’t panic. Roglic is still within striking distance with numerous stages left that he can win. Furthermore, the time bonuses at the end of each stage could make a big difference as well.

As long as Roglic is within 60 seconds of the race leader when they do the mountain time trial on Stage 13, he should still win this race. Only his teammate Tom Doumilin has a better shot at winning that stage.

I also remain steadfast in my podium picks. I don’t see Carthy remaining at the top of the standings after three weeks of this level of racing. Additionally, Dan Martin tends to fade in the high mountains.

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The King of the Mountains competition was first introduced into the Vuelta a Espana in 1935 along with the overall general classification.

From 1935 to 2005, the leader in this competition wore a green jersey. However, that color has been switched over to the points classification like the other two Grand Tours. From 2005 to 2010, the KOTM leader wore an orange jersey.

In 2010, the king of the mountains jersey was switched to a white jersey with blue polka dots. That remains the current colored jersey for the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains classification.

This year’s KOTM competition is going to be an exciting one as there are six mountain stages including a mountain time trial on Stage 13. Furthermore, there are at least three or four more “hilly stages” with tough mountains to climb.

Cycling betting sites have released their odds for the King of the Mountains classification. Let’s take a closer look at this competition, identify the best betting options, and predict who will win the polka dot jersey.

The 2020 Vuelta a España is the final grand tour of 2020, which has been a pretty jam packed season due to the delayed start. This promises to be an exciting edition, and one for the climbers with only 4 flat stages!

Watch it here ?https://t.co/trHghPNKW0pic.twitter.com/YHUiN14KXU

— GlobalCyclingNetwork (@gcntweet) October 17, 2020

Previous KOTM Winners

Edoardo Molinar won the first KOTM jersey back in 1935. Since then, Jose Luis Laguia has won this competition a record five times. David Moncoutie holds the record for the most consecutive wins in this competition with four.

The following is a list of recent KOTM winners dating back to 1997:

  • Jose Maria Jimenez in 1997-1999, 2001
  • Carlos Sastre in 2000
  • Aitor Osa in 2002
  • Felix Cardenas in 2003, 2004
  • Joaquim Rodriguez in 2005
  • Egoi Martinez in 2006
  • Denis Menchov in 2007
  • David Moncoutie in 2008-2011
  • Simon Clarke in 2012
  • Nicolas Edet in 2013
  • Luis Leon Sanchez in 2014
  • Omar Fraile in 2015-2016
  • Davide Villella in 2017
  • Thomas De Gendt in 2018
  • Geoffrey Bouchard in 2019

Vuelta a Espana KOTM Betting Odds

The following cycling betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Angel Madrazo (+1000)
  • Primoz Roglic (+1000)
  • Richard Carapaz(+1000)
  • Luis Angel Mate(+1800)
  • Alexander Vlasov (+2500)
  • Johan Esteban Chaves (+2500)
  • Mikel Nieve (+2500)
  • Tim Wellens (+2500)
  • Tomasz Marczynski (+2500)
  • Davide Formolo(+2800)
  • Michael Woods(+2800)
  • Omar Fraile (+2800)
  • Simon Geschke (+2800)
  • Daniel Martinez(+3300)
  • David Gaudu (+3300)
  • Enric Mas Nicolau (+3300)
  • Mattia Cattaneo (+3300)
  • Thibaut Pinot (+3300)
  • Alejandro Valverde (+4000)
  • Chris Froome (+4000)
  • Dan Martin (+4000)
  • David de la Cruz(+4000)
  • Fernando Barcelo (+4000)

The Top Choices for the King of the Mountains Competition

Based on the riders in this year’s Vuelta a Espana, the following cyclists are the best choices to win this year’s King of the Mountains competition:

Angel Madrazo (+1000)

Madrazo makes his first appearance in a Grand Tour this year. He’s competed in four previous Vuelta a Espanas and was 2nd in the KOTM competition last year as he also won a stage.

This year, Madrazo is the favorite to win the KOTM along with Primoz Roglic who’s a betting favorite to win the overall race, which is represented by the red jersey.

Since Madrazo races for a team without a clear GC contender (Burgos-BH), it’s believed that he will be given freedom to pursue the King of the Mountains competition.

Primoz Roglic (+1000)

Oddschecker

Primoz Roglic had a dominating performance in the 2020 Tour de France. Unfortunately, he came up short in the final stages and finished 2nd overall. He was also 3rd in the KOTM competition.

Roglic’s best performance in a KOTM classification came in the 2017 Tour de France when he finished 2nd.

Last year, Roglic won the Vuelta a Espana, but finished 11th overall in this KOTM competition. He has a better chance at winning the points classification in addition to the overall GC rather than the King of the Mountains.

Richard Carapaz (+1000)

Carapaz enters as the leader of Team INEOS and will get plenty of support in his pursuit of the red jersey, which represents the overall race leader and winner.

Although his focus will be on the race win, he does have solid finishes in KOTM competitions for Grand Tours.

Carapaz was 2nd in the KOTM competition for this year’s Tour de France. He also finished 4th in the KOTM for the 2019 Giro d’Italia and 5th in the 2018 Giro.

Carapaz is going to need to attack in the mountains since he won’t be able to handle Roglic or Dumoulin in the time trial on Stage 13. That could improve his chances at winning this King of the Mountains competition.

Luis Angel Mate (+1800)

The 36 year old Spaniard races for Cofidis, Solutions Credits and will be called upon to perform well in the mountains this year especially to help out his team leader. Furthermore, he’s a perfect candidate to get into breakaways and finish high on mountain stages.

This will be Mate’s 9th Vuelta appearance and his best finish in the KOTM competition was 3rd in 2018. Mate could be a sneaky pick for this year’s competition as well.

Mikel Nieve (+2500)

Mikel Nieve will be one of the top riders for Mitchelton-Scott and he’s a Spaniard with plenty of climbing success in Grand Tours. This year’s Vuelta will mark Nieve’s 20th Grand Tour race and his 8th Vuelta a Espana.

Chaves and Nieve lead Mitchelton-Scott into Vuelta a España

No Adam Yates after Liège crash as team decides to race in Spain following Giro d'Italia withdrawalhttps://t.co/pvMke6tbMqpic.twitter.com/Iv8KqwQTfo

— Cyclingnews.com (@Cyclingnewsfeed) October 15, 2020

Althoug he’s never won a Grand Tour, Nieve has won four Grand Tour stages including one in the Vuelta. Additionally, he’s finished in the Top 10 for the KOTM competition six times, in the Top 5 four times, and won this competition at the 2016 Giro.

Nieve’s 2020 season has ben relatively forgettable, but the Spaniard would love nothing more than to have a strong performance in his country’s biggest race.

Who Will be Tour of Spain’s King of the Mountains?

Spaniards have won 50 of the previous 74 KOTM competitions and there’s a great chance they do it again this year with Mate, Nieve and Madrazo leading the pack.

Vuelta Espana 2019 Betting Odds

? Favoritos para el maillot de la montaña / Mountain jersey: contenders

?? @AngelMadrazo
??‍♂️ @BurgosBH#LaVuelta20 / @loterias_espic.twitter.com/vYh9jXxG1U

— La Vuelta (@lavuelta) October 18, 2020

Another stat to consider before we make our prediction, is that in the last 50 years the overall Vuelta a Espana race winner has also won the KOTM competition just five times:

  • Denis Menchov in 1997
  • Laurent Jalabert in 1995
  • Tony Rominger in 1993
  • Lucho Herrera in 1987
  • Jose Manuel Fuente in 1972

In fact not even the great Eddy Merckx or “The Badger” Bernard Hinault could pull off winning the red jersey and the KOTM jersey.

With that said, it makes me think that Roglic and Carapaz won’t be able to accomplish this either. In fact, Roglic won the Vuelta last year, but was just 11th in the KOTM competition.

Of the three Spaniards that I’ve listed above, Madrazo has the best shot at winning this competition. He has no GC contender to support on his team and he was 2nd in this competition last year. He didn’t race the Vuelta in 2017 and 2018.

Vuelta Betting Odds Ncaa Football

I like the 32 year old to capture the polka dots this year and give Spain its first King of the Mountains winner since 2016.

Vuelta Betting Odds

Tour of Spain’s King of the Mountains –Angel Madrazo (+1000)

Vuelta Betting Oddschecker

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Vuelta Betting Odds Ncaa Basketball

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